Carlos Alcaraz is guaranteed to become the new World No. 2 after his efforts at the 2024 China Open, but he will still trail Jannik Sinner by many points.
It seemed like Alcaraz’s season might peter out after the North American hardcourt swing. He looked mentally drained during his two tournaments in North America, including a second-round US Open loss to Botic van de Zandschulp.
Alcaraz was undoubtedly struggling after his brutal loss in the Olympics gold medal match to Novak Djokovic, a result that left him in tears afterward. The US Open came too soon after that setback.
Former players like John McEnroe said the 21-year-old should rest for two months to prevent burnout, feeling that a unique talent like the Spaniard needs to be protected.
Some also could have interpreted Alcaraz’s recent comments about the calendar as a sign that he was struggling to cope, with the former world No. 1 admitting there have been times he did not want to go tournaments.
However, those factors have not prevented Alcaraz from playing very well since the end of the US Open. He began by helping Spain reach the Davis Cup Final 8, and he and Rafael Nadal are in Spain’s team for the Finals in November.
That was followed by Alcaraz being the star of the show for Team Europe at the Laver Cup, sealing their first title in three years by dismantling Taylor Fritz in his final singles match in Berlin.
The two-time Wimbledon champion was involved in some controversy a few days later in his first match at the ongoing China Open, getting into a heated row with the umpire over receiving time violations.
That moment did not stop Alcaraz from reaching his first final since the Olympics without dropping a set, proving to his doubters that his season was not over after the US Open.
Alcaraz’s success at the China Open means he is guaranteed to overtake Alexander Zverev at No. 2 when the rankings are released next week, even if he loses the final in Bejing.
The Spaniard will be on 7,010 points after winning the title or 6,840 if he finishes as the runner-up. Both those totals are more than Zverev’s 6705, who chose not to play at the China Open.
Alcaraz will face Sinner in a blockbuster final. Despite their epic previous matches, they have only played in one final. That was on clay at the Croatia Open in Umag more than two years ago, with Sinner winning in three sets.
However, Alcaraz defeating Sinner in the final would only make a minor dent in the Italian’s lead at world No. 1. If he loses, the US Open champion will end the tournament with 11,010 points, which would be a lead of exactly 4,000 points over his rival.
The four-time Grand Slam champion’s hopes of overtaking Sinner at No. 1 before the end of the year look over, but he could beat Sinner for the third time in a row this year if he beats him in the China Open final.
