Manchester City FPP blow confirmed with Arsenal set to benefit under one condition

From an Arsenal perspective, there is much to like about the spending cap that Premier League teams are proposing on paper.

Under the proposed “anchoring” model, the Premier League teams’ spending limits would be determined by the amount of money received in television rights by the team with the lowest revenue in the division. Southampton was the winner with £103.6 million last year. Teams could have spent £518 million if the cap had been set at five times that amount.

Arsenal would have been squarely in this category. They spent an estimated £326 million on agents’ fees, amortized transfer costs, and wages during the previous campaign. The Gunners should theoretically still be fine despite the signings of Declan Rice, Kai Havertz, Jurrien Timber, and David Raya as well as the contract renewals for Bukayo Saka, William Saliba, Gabriel Martinelli, Gabriel Maglahaes, Martin Odegaard, Aaron Ramsdale, Reiss Nelson, Ben White, and Takehiro Tomiyasu changing those numbers for this season.

Arsenal would have been squarely in this category. They spent an estimated £326 million on agents’ fees, amortized transfer costs, and wages during the previous campaign. The Gunners should theoretically still be fine despite the signings of Declan Rice, Kai Havertz, Jurrien Timber, and David Raya as well as the contract renewals for Bukayo Saka, William Saliba, Gabriel Martinelli, Gabriel Maglahaes, Martin Odegaard, Aaron Ramsdale, Reiss Nelson, Ben White, and Takehiro Tomiyasu changing those numbers for this season.

Most importantly, Arsenal would be in a good position to gain from these new regulations in the future. The recent squad overhaul led by Mikel Arteta has placed the Gunners in a somewhat stable position. They don’t currently need to make significant purchases in order to get closer to the top of the Premier League. Any investment would only help a team that has already proven it can challenge Manchester City for the championship. In sharp contrast, teams like Chelsea and Manchester United will have to make significant purchases once more in order to catch up.

While City might also have a team capable of winning titles, the new regulations would not be as advantageous to them. It is estimated that they spent approximately £501 million on player salaries, agent fees, and transfer amortisation during the previous season. This would put them dangerously close to the cap and make it much harder for them to reinvest in Pep Guardiola’s team. They might have even been forced to sell a few players as a result of it.

Arsenal appears to be in the driver’s seat here, and it’s easy to see why. But things are rarely that easy. The Gunners will want a few issues resolved before the principles are formally put to a vote at the Premier League AGM in June.

Most importantly, they will require clarification regarding the nature of the spending cap in comparison to other European rivals. Manchester United’s main defense against “anchoring” is reportedly this. Rugby is a sport that Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s INEOS company is heavily invested in, so they are aware of its potential risks. Several of the best players in the English Premiership are currently leaving for the Top 14 in France, where teams can afford to pay much more.

To be clear, things aren’t exactly the same here. “Anchoring” wouldn’t prevent a team like United from paying players the same salary as, say, Real Madrid. However, the cap might make it more difficult for them to do so consistently. Arsenal might be negatively impacted by this as well.

In order to sign Rice, the Gunners were able to outbid Bayern Munich during the summer. It may not have been so easy if the German champions had had exponentially more money to spend on player salaries and transfer fees, even though other factors are clearly important.

It’s understandable why Arsenal is in the lead here, but by acting independently of the rest of Europe, the Premier League has already burned a few fingers. Clubs suffered in the end as the rest of Europe gained a competitive advantage when they decided to move forward the end of the English transfer window to the beginning of the league season.

Before implementing any new regulations, Arsenal needs to make sure they don’t violate this. But if they get past this obstacle, the reorganization of the financial scene might help the Gunners in the long run.